Developing an Optimized Policy Tree-Based Reservoir Operation Model for High Aswan Dam Reservoir, Nile River

The impacts of climate change on the Nile River and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) along with increased water demand downstream suggest an urgent need for more efficient management reservoir system that is well-informed by accurate modeling optimization operation. This study provides updated balance model Aswan High Reservoir, which was validated using combined heterogeneous sources information, including in situ gauge data, bias-corrected reanalyzed remote sensing information. To investigate future challenges, spatial distribution annual/seasonal Reservoir surface air temperature trends over period from 1979 to 2018 studied. An increase around 0.48 °C per decade average annual detected, a trend expected continue until 2100. Moreover, set machine learning models were developed utilized bias-correct inflow outflow data available Reservoir. Finally, policy tree inform decision-making process operation system. Results historical test simulations show reliable estimation evaporation losses, new regulations added projects, such as Toshka Project, greatly affect simulation results guide managers through how should be operated future.